Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Roadmap to Delhi?

Narendra Modi, the BJP poster boy, completed his 3 day fast occupying the national attention the entire weekend. Congress couldn't do much other than sit and watch this event unravel, but if you ask me, they shouldn't be unduly worried. Most of their attacks on Modi has backfired and has only increased his popularity more than anything, so they made the customary noise about Modi being communal, started a fast at a venue near Modi's fast, aligning with the opposition political dharma, but otherwise they kept quiet. So whats this stunt all about? Modi harbouring PM ambitions should be the worst kept secret in BJP, but still is this the starting point to Modi being projected as a national politician? I think so, this entire event was scripted to perfection which was very evident in the way the fast ended, a lemon juice sip from the hands of each of the community representatives. So Modi has officially thrown his hat into the PM ring.

Modi's persona as a representative of Gujarat has never been a question. His administrative skills are quite evident from the progress his state has made, it is indeed a vibrant Gujarat, how else can a state with no history in the automotive industry can now pose a challenge to Pune and Chennai. Gujarat is the most progressive state setting examples to the other states in terms of GDP and revenue and it of course ranks #1 amongst all other states in India. His vision and ability has helped Gujarat in number of ways, but the question as to how he will perform at the national level still remains. It is to be noted, so far, Modi has not voiced his opinion in any of the issues of national importance, he is still not out of the 'yet another politician' mould when it comes to issues outside Gujarat. So the nation has not seen him or assessed him at the national level, in fact, he is still considered to be a RSS side kick or a Hindutva politician. So if my guess is correct, the transformation from a local hindutva to the national secular leader will be an interesting transition and how BJP handles this entire exercise should be even more interesting. With so much infighting and no clear winner to lead them, this should be an tedious task under the assumption Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj are not going to be happy when they hear they will have to play second fiddle to Modi. Even if Modi were to emerge successful in convincing his fellow leaders, it is to be seen how well he handles the national role, it is always easy to dictate terms at your own backyard, once you are in the street, it is any one's game. One more critical point to consider is the acceptance of Modi as a leader amongst the NDA coalition partners and how BJP can convince them, there are already rumours that Nitish Kumar is the preferred PM candidate amongst the NDA partners. To early to speculate but an interesting battle whatsoever.

With BJP starting their road map to Delhi, I think Congress has a trump card in the form of Rahul Gandhi. This 2014 elections should be an interesting battle, not between BJP and Congress, but between the second rung young leaders in both the party coalitions. 

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